The Associated Press broke a story today about war games conducted in 1999 which were focused on overthrowing Saddam and the ensuing outcome. The following conclusions resulted, and were ignored for the subsequent real
War in Iraq:
- A change in regimes does not guarantee stability
- A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability
- Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic — especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments
- Iran’s anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq
- The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad
- The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development
- Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government
- A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners
This could be a copy from the pages of the Bush Administrations 'Lessons Learned' manual. Unfortunately for us, they aren't reading this manual and didn't bother to read the intelligence and assesments that had already been prepared. Why do we pay our intelligence agencies billions of dollars annually if the President isn't going to follow their advice?
Molten Carbon
